If instead you had fixed chicken moral weight and used a variable for human moral weight relative to chicken moral weight and multiplied AMF’s value into cDALYs, you’d get different results. In particular, since chickens may have 0 moral weight on the (imo unlikely) possibility that they are not conscious at all, you would get division by 0 and positive infinity as the expected value of the ratio of cost-effectiveness of AMF relative to THL. And of course this wouldn’t capture how we should think about this.
I don’t think it makes sense to fix either chicken or human moral weight in the denominator and use a multiplier for the other and take expectations across. While it might feel like we have direct acquaintance with our own moral weight, this is individual-relative, not absolute.
The sensitivity analysis and distribution of EV ratios on different fixed moral weights are still fine to present and very useful, though!
Note that taking expectations over your uncertainty about chicken moral weight relative to humans runs into the two envelopes problem:
https://reducing-suffering.org/two-envelopes-problem-for-brain-size-and-moral-uncertainty/
If instead you had fixed chicken moral weight and used a variable for human moral weight relative to chicken moral weight and multiplied AMF’s value into cDALYs, you’d get different results. In particular, since chickens may have 0 moral weight on the (imo unlikely) possibility that they are not conscious at all, you would get division by 0 and positive infinity as the expected value of the ratio of cost-effectiveness of AMF relative to THL. And of course this wouldn’t capture how we should think about this.
I don’t think it makes sense to fix either chicken or human moral weight in the denominator and use a multiplier for the other and take expectations across. While it might feel like we have direct acquaintance with our own moral weight, this is individual-relative, not absolute.
The sensitivity analysis and distribution of EV ratios on different fixed moral weights are still fine to present and very useful, though!