I don’t fully understand GiveWell’s spreadsheet myself but I’ll try to answer. By default, “Cost per outcome as good as” cell seems to factor in averting under-5 deaths (46% of the total benefit), averting age 5+ deaths (27%) and development effects (28%).
In the ‘results’ tab, you see that by default, the estimation doesn’t include additional adjustments. If you change that, then the estimate takes into account the effects listed in the “Inclusion/Exclusion” sheet (see below)
It also takes into account something but I haven’t figured out what. In the end including additional adjustments changes “Cost per outcome as good as” very modestly, from $1,690 to $1,678.
Note that according to WHO, in 2018 there were 228 million cases of malaria worldwide resulting in an estimated 405,000 deaths. So for every lethal case, there were 405,000 / 228 million = 563 non-lethal cases. AMF founder said that bednets prevent these non lethal cases as well. I don’t know how much suffering an average case of malaria causes but the combined effect is probably significant. Especially when we take into account some of the complications that sometimes arise from malaria.
For example, GiveWell claims that “It is also believed that malaria can cause permanent disability (hearing impairment, visual impairment, epilepsy, etc.)”. An old Giving What We Can report says “our model suggests that the distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated bednets averts one case of epilepsy for about $25,000.” Note that it is not only difficult to live with epilepsy, but it’s also difficult and stressful to raise a child that has epilepsy (see this video).
How much to weigh these effects and effects of other diseases AMF may prevent (e.g. dengue, yellow fever, zika, encephalitis) depends on the subjective trade-off between preventing deaths and preventing suffering. I feel that my personal trade-off would give much more relative weight to the suffering than GiveWell does. Although I’m sure that GiveWell has solid reasons for making their estimates in the way that they did.
Finally, GiveWell’s estimate doesn’t seem to take into account many other effects. E.g.:
Preventing deaths prevents grief of parents, siblings and friends
Preventing morbidity also prevents a lot of additional trouble associated with it
Bednets prevent mosquito bites which we all know are annoying
On the other hand, I remember reading somewhere that people feel discomfort when sleeping under bednets
Malaria has a high economic burden and bednets reduce that as well.
Relatedly, bednets can empower some struggling people. An old GiveWell blog says: “a substantial part of the good that one does may be indirect: the people that one helps directly (by e.g. funding distribution of bednets) become more empowered to contribute to society, and this in turn may empower others, etc. If one believes that, on average, people tend to accomplish good when they become more empowered, it’s conceivable that the indirect benefits of one’s giving swamp the first-order effects.”
Fighting malaria impacts the size of the human populations which has many different consequences
FInally, AMF has an impact on mosquitos. The only analysis of that that I know of is the one by Brian Tomasik but it is from a negative utilitarian point of view. Also, I don’t know if killed mosquitos mean that some other animals also don’t get mosquito bites and associated problems.
Note that I’m not at all an expert on any of these problems so don’t put too much weight on what I say.
Good points. :) That post of mine isn’t really about the mosquitoes themselves but more about the impacts that a larger human population would have on invertebrates (assuming AMF does increase the size of the human population, which is a question I also mention briefly).
I don’t fully understand GiveWell’s spreadsheet myself but I’ll try to answer. By default, “Cost per outcome as good as” cell seems to factor in averting under-5 deaths (46% of the total benefit), averting age 5+ deaths (27%) and development effects (28%).
Developmental effects here seem to refer to the fact that reducing the burden of malaria may have a lasting impact on children’s development, and thus on their ability to be productive and successful throughout life.
In the ‘results’ tab, you see that by default, the estimation doesn’t include additional adjustments. If you change that, then the estimate takes into account the effects listed in the “Inclusion/Exclusion” sheet (see below)
It also takes into account something but I haven’t figured out what. In the end including additional adjustments changes “Cost per outcome as good as” very modestly, from $1,690 to $1,678.
Note that according to WHO, in 2018 there were 228 million cases of malaria worldwide resulting in an estimated 405,000 deaths. So for every lethal case, there were 405,000 / 228 million = 563 non-lethal cases. AMF founder said that bednets prevent these non lethal cases as well. I don’t know how much suffering an average case of malaria causes but the combined effect is probably significant. Especially when we take into account some of the complications that sometimes arise from malaria.
For example, GiveWell claims that “It is also believed that malaria can cause permanent disability (hearing impairment, visual impairment, epilepsy, etc.)”. An old Giving What We Can report says “our model suggests that the distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated bednets averts one case of epilepsy for about $25,000.” Note that it is not only difficult to live with epilepsy, but it’s also difficult and stressful to raise a child that has epilepsy (see this video).
How much to weigh these effects and effects of other diseases AMF may prevent (e.g. dengue, yellow fever, zika, encephalitis) depends on the subjective trade-off between preventing deaths and preventing suffering. I feel that my personal trade-off would give much more relative weight to the suffering than GiveWell does. Although I’m sure that GiveWell has solid reasons for making their estimates in the way that they did.
Finally, GiveWell’s estimate doesn’t seem to take into account many other effects. E.g.:
Preventing deaths prevents grief of parents, siblings and friends
Preventing morbidity also prevents a lot of additional trouble associated with it
Bednets prevent mosquito bites which we all know are annoying
On the other hand, I remember reading somewhere that people feel discomfort when sleeping under bednets
Malaria has a high economic burden and bednets reduce that as well.
Relatedly, bednets can empower some struggling people. An old GiveWell blog says: “a substantial part of the good that one does may be indirect: the people that one helps directly (by e.g. funding distribution of bednets) become more empowered to contribute to society, and this in turn may empower others, etc. If one believes that, on average, people tend to accomplish good when they become more empowered, it’s conceivable that the indirect benefits of one’s giving swamp the first-order effects.”
Fighting malaria impacts the size of the human populations which has many different consequences
FInally, AMF has an impact on mosquitos. The only analysis of that that I know of is the one by Brian Tomasik but it is from a negative utilitarian point of view. Also, I don’t know if killed mosquitos mean that some other animals also don’t get mosquito bites and associated problems.
Note that I’m not at all an expert on any of these problems so don’t put too much weight on what I say.
Good points. :) That post of mine isn’t really about the mosquitoes themselves but more about the impacts that a larger human population would have on invertebrates (assuming AMF does increase the size of the human population, which is a question I also mention briefly).