One thing you might want to add about the potential costs of any conflict is that it deters long term investment. Nobody plants an orchard that will only give fruit in 15 years if they think they might have to run for their life in three.
Yes, we’ve been thinking about this a bit. In this version of the model, I assumed recovery to trend within 10 years, but honestly, that’s incredibly unrealistic. We’re likely to revise our model to use a substantially longer time scale for recovery.
One thing you might want to add about the potential costs of any conflict is that it deters long term investment. Nobody plants an orchard that will only give fruit in 15 years if they think they might have to run for their life in three.
Oh, hi, stranger. ;)
Yes, we’ve been thinking about this a bit. In this version of the model, I assumed recovery to trend within 10 years, but honestly, that’s incredibly unrealistic. We’re likely to revise our model to use a substantially longer time scale for recovery.