Thanks Mike. I agree that the alliance is fortunately rather loose in the sense that most of these countries share no ideology. (In fact, some of them should arguably be ideological enemies, e.g., Islamic theocrats in Iran and Maoist communists in China).
But I worry that this alliance is held together by a hatred of (or ressentiment in general) Western secular democratic principles for ideological and (geo-)political reasons. Hatred can be an extremely powerful and unifying force. (Many political/ideological movements are arguably primarily defined, united, and motivated by what they hate, e.g., Nazism by the hatred of Jews, communism by the hatred of capitalists, racists hate other ethnicities, Democrats hate Trump and racists, Republicans hate the woke and communists, etc.)
So I worry that as long as Western democracies to influence international affairs, this alliance will continue to exist. And I certainly hope that Western democracies will continue to be powerful and worry that the world (and the future) will become a worse place if not.
Another way to think about the risk is not just the current existing authoritarian regimes (e.g. China, Russia, DPRK) but also the alliance or transnational movement of right-wing populism, which is bleeding into authoritarianism, seeking power in many Western democracies. Despite being “nationalist”, each country’s movement and leaders often support each other on the world stage and are learning from each other e.g. Bannon pays a support visit to France’s National Front, many American right-wingers see Orban as a model and invite him to CPAC, Le Pen and Orban discussed strategies to undermine EU policies and bolster nationalist agendas.
Perhaps the scenario to watch out for is several of these strongmen/strongwomen coming to power at the same time. Right now the rise of right-wing populism lead by authoritarian-aspiring strongman in small-L liberal democracies has been manageable because their capture of institutional power has been uneven across counties at any point in time, but I wouldn’t rely on that in the future because Establishment and Liberal parties generally have not shown the ability to transform the drivers of polarization and economic populism (some of which gets co-opted for right-wing populism and authoritarianism) i.e. these right-wing and authoritarian parties will continue to increase their vote share over time.
Thanks Mike. I agree that the alliance is fortunately rather loose in the sense that most of these countries share no ideology. (In fact, some of them should arguably be ideological enemies, e.g., Islamic theocrats in Iran and Maoist communists in China).
But I worry that this alliance is held together by a hatred of (or ressentiment in general) Western secular democratic principles for ideological and (geo-)political reasons. Hatred can be an extremely powerful and unifying force. (Many political/ideological movements are arguably primarily defined, united, and motivated by what they hate, e.g., Nazism by the hatred of Jews, communism by the hatred of capitalists, racists hate other ethnicities, Democrats hate Trump and racists, Republicans hate the woke and communists, etc.)
So I worry that as long as Western democracies to influence international affairs, this alliance will continue to exist. And I certainly hope that Western democracies will continue to be powerful and worry that the world (and the future) will become a worse place if not.
Another way to think about the risk is not just the current existing authoritarian regimes (e.g. China, Russia, DPRK) but also the alliance or transnational movement of right-wing populism, which is bleeding into authoritarianism, seeking power in many Western democracies. Despite being “nationalist”, each country’s movement and leaders often support each other on the world stage and are learning from each other e.g. Bannon pays a support visit to France’s National Front, many American right-wingers see Orban as a model and invite him to CPAC, Le Pen and Orban discussed strategies to undermine EU policies and bolster nationalist agendas.
Perhaps the scenario to watch out for is several of these strongmen/strongwomen coming to power at the same time. Right now the rise of right-wing populism lead by authoritarian-aspiring strongman in small-L liberal democracies has been manageable because their capture of institutional power has been uneven across counties at any point in time, but I wouldn’t rely on that in the future because Establishment and Liberal parties generally have not shown the ability to transform the drivers of polarization and economic populism (some of which gets co-opted for right-wing populism and authoritarianism) i.e. these right-wing and authoritarian parties will continue to increase their vote share over time.