I appreciate that those would be your numbers, I’m just pointing out that you do actually need that high standard deviation (i.e. you need to believe that the flow through affects will likely be larger than the direct effects) in order to justify that claim. Which is what Denise was saying in the first place.
You appeared to think you could get away with allowing that flow through affects are probably smaller than direct impact and then make the much weaker claim ‘there’s a possibility that AMF has large negative flow-through effects that overwhelm its benefits’ to get to your conclusion that you can’t have high confidence in AMF being good. But I don’t think you can actually allow that; I’m fully capable of accepting that argument and still considering AMF ‘high confidence’ good.
Of course, you might just have a good argument for focusing on the flow-through effects, which would render this discussion moot.
I appreciate that those would be your numbers, I’m just pointing out that you do actually need that high standard deviation (i.e. you need to believe that the flow through affects will likely be larger than the direct effects) in order to justify that claim. Which is what Denise was saying in the first place.
You appeared to think you could get away with allowing that flow through affects are probably smaller than direct impact and then make the much weaker claim ‘there’s a possibility that AMF has large negative flow-through effects that overwhelm its benefits’ to get to your conclusion that you can’t have high confidence in AMF being good. But I don’t think you can actually allow that; I’m fully capable of accepting that argument and still considering AMF ‘high confidence’ good.
Of course, you might just have a good argument for focusing on the flow-through effects, which would render this discussion moot.