One response to this is to argue that the best proxy for having a good long-run impact is having a good short-run impact (e.g. via boosting economic growth).
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is still a speculative claim, so if you make it, you can no longer say you’re following robust evidence only.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is still a speculative claim, so if you make it, you can no longer say you’re following robust evidence only.
Yes I totally agree. I was just saying what the most common responses are, not agreeing with them.
cf http://effective-altruism.com/ea/qx/two_observations_about_skeptical_vs_speculative/