To apply this to conception events—imagine we changed conception events so that girls were much more likely to be conceived than boys (say because in the near-term that had some good effects eg. say women tended to be happier at the time). My intuition here is that there could be long-term effects of indeterminate sign (eg. from increased/decreased population growth) which might dominate the near-term effects. Does that match your intuition?
Yes, that matches my intuition. This action creates a sweeping change a really complex system; I would be surprised if there were no unexpected effects.
But I don’t see why we should believe all actions are like this. I’m raising the “long-term effects don’t persist” objection, arguing that it seems true of *some* actions.
Hey, glad this was helpful! : )
Yes, that matches my intuition. This action creates a sweeping change a really complex system; I would be surprised if there were no unexpected effects.
But I don’t see why we should believe all actions are like this. I’m raising the “long-term effects don’t persist” objection, arguing that it seems true of *some* actions.