No, that seems plausible, although I’d have to look into how long the population effects go. The point isn’t about direct vs indirect effects (all effects are indirect, in my view), but net effects we have estimates of magnitude for. I don’t consider those effects to be “long-term” in the way longtermists use the word. The expected value on the long term isn’t obvious at all, since there are too many different considerations to weigh against one another, many we’re unaware of, and no good way to weigh them.
No, that seems plausible, although I’d have to look into how long the population effects go. The point isn’t about direct vs indirect effects (all effects are indirect, in my view), but net effects we have estimates of magnitude for. I don’t consider those effects to be “long-term” in the way longtermists use the word. The expected value on the long term isn’t obvious at all, since there are too many different considerations to weigh against one another, many we’re unaware of, and no good way to weigh them.
Note: I retracted my previous reply.