the long-term effects of these actions probably dominate. But we don’t know what the long-term effects of many interventions are [...]
To me, it makes more sense, even if you’re focused on traditionally near-termist causes like mental health, animal welfare, and global poverty, to evaluate interventions based on their long-term effects.
This just seems like a nonstarter. If our estimates of long-term effects are massively uncertain, how can they possibly be action-guiding?
This just seems like a nonstarter. If our estimates of long-term effects are massively uncertain, how can they possibly be action-guiding?