This is a bit hard to answer for me, because there are three grants that I was quite excited about that we didn’t end up making, that I think were more valuable than many of the grants we did end up making, so maybe a different grant member should answer this question.
If I exclude those three grants, I think there were grants we didn’t fund that are about as good as the ones we funded, at least from my personal perspective.
It’s harder for me to give an answer “from the perspective of the whole fund”, but I would still be surprised if the next grant would have a marginal cost-effectiveness of less than 90% of the marginal grant this round, though I think these things tend to be pretty high variance, so probably only 60% of the average grant this round.
This suggests that at an additional counterfactually valid donation of $10,000 to the fund, donated prior to this grant round, would have had (if not saved for future rounds) about 60% of the cost-effectiveness of the $439,197 that was distributed.
It might be useful to understand how much more money the fund could have distributed before reaching a very low marginal cost-effectiveness. For example, if the fund had to distribute in this grant round a counterfactually valid donation of $5MM, how would the cost-effectiveness of that donation compare to that of the $439,197 that was distributed?
This is a bit hard to answer for me, because there are three grants that I was quite excited about that we didn’t end up making, that I think were more valuable than many of the grants we did end up making, so maybe a different grant member should answer this question.
If I exclude those three grants, I think there were grants we didn’t fund that are about as good as the ones we funded, at least from my personal perspective.
It’s harder for me to give an answer “from the perspective of the whole fund”, but I would still be surprised if the next grant would have a marginal cost-effectiveness of less than 90% of the marginal grant this round, though I think these things tend to be pretty high variance, so probably only 60% of the average grant this round.
Thank you!
This suggests that at an additional counterfactually valid donation of $10,000 to the fund, donated prior to this grant round, would have had (if not saved for future rounds) about 60% of the cost-effectiveness of the $439,197 that was distributed.
It might be useful to understand how much more money the fund could have distributed before reaching a very low marginal cost-effectiveness. For example, if the fund had to distribute in this grant round a counterfactually valid donation of $5MM, how would the cost-effectiveness of that donation compare to that of the $439,197 that was distributed?