Executive summary: Common longtermist thought experiments comparing present vs. future lives saved are flawed because they ignore both indirect effects of current actions and the likelihood that future societies will be better equipped to solve problems.
Key points:
Thought experiments comparing present vs. future lives oversimplify by ignoring indirect effects (e.g., saving 100 lives now could compound to save more than 1000 lives in the future)
Future societies will likely have vastly more resources and capabilities, making future life-saving much cheaper and more tractable
The future will likely be either dramatically better or catastrophically worse, making stagnation prevention more important than direct future life-saving
Author supports longtermism in principle but argues we should often “outsource” future problem-solving to future societies
Key uncertainty: Predictions about future population and economic growth could significantly affect these arguments
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Common longtermist thought experiments comparing present vs. future lives saved are flawed because they ignore both indirect effects of current actions and the likelihood that future societies will be better equipped to solve problems.
Key points:
Thought experiments comparing present vs. future lives oversimplify by ignoring indirect effects (e.g., saving 100 lives now could compound to save more than 1000 lives in the future)
Future societies will likely have vastly more resources and capabilities, making future life-saving much cheaper and more tractable
The future will likely be either dramatically better or catastrophically worse, making stagnation prevention more important than direct future life-saving
Author supports longtermism in principle but argues we should often “outsource” future problem-solving to future societies
Key uncertainty: Predictions about future population and economic growth could significantly affect these arguments
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.