Hmm, okay. So, for example, when they’re below 15%, you bet that it will happen at odds matching 15% against them, and when they’re above 20%, you bet that it won’t happen at 20% against them. And just make sure to size the bets right so that if you lose one bet, your payoff is higher in the other, which you’d win. They “give up” the 15-20% range for free to you.
Still, maybe they just mean to report the historical range or volatility of their estimates? This would be like reporting the historical volatility of a stock. They may not intend to imply, say, that they’ll definitely fall below 15% at some point and above 20% at another.
Plus, picking one way to average may seem unjustifiably precise to them. The average over time is one way, but another is the average over relatively unique (clusters) of states of mind, e.g. splitting weight equally between good, ~neutral and bad moods, averages over possible sets of value assignments for various parameters. There are many different reasonable choices they can make, all pretty arbitrary.
Hmm, okay. So, for example, when they’re below 15%, you bet that it will happen at odds matching 15% against them, and when they’re above 20%, you bet that it won’t happen at 20% against them. And just make sure to size the bets right so that if you lose one bet, your payoff is higher in the other, which you’d win. They “give up” the 15-20% range for free to you.
Still, maybe they just mean to report the historical range or volatility of their estimates? This would be like reporting the historical volatility of a stock. They may not intend to imply, say, that they’ll definitely fall below 15% at some point and above 20% at another.
Plus, picking one way to average may seem unjustifiably precise to them. The average over time is one way, but another is the average over relatively unique (clusters) of states of mind, e.g. splitting weight equally between good, ~neutral and bad moods, averages over possible sets of value assignments for various parameters. There are many different reasonable choices they can make, all pretty arbitrary.