This is dutch-book-able only if there is no bid-ask spread. A rational choice in this case would be to have a very wide bid-ask spread. E.g. when Holden Karnofsky writes that his P(doom) is between 10% and 90%, I assume he would bet for doom at 9% or less, bet against doom at 91% or more, and not bet for 0.11<p<0.89. This seems a very rational choice in a high-volatility situation where information changes extremely quickly. (As an example, IIRC the bid-ask spread in financial markets increases right before earnings are released).
(I agree it is reasonable to have a bid-ask spread when betting against capable adversaries. I think the statements-I-object-to are asserting something else, and the analogy to financial markets is mostly irrelevant. I don’t really want to get into this now.)
This is dutch-book-able only if there is no bid-ask spread. A rational choice in this case would be to have a very wide bid-ask spread. E.g. when Holden Karnofsky writes that his P(doom) is between 10% and 90%, I assume he would bet for doom at 9% or less, bet against doom at 91% or more, and not bet for 0.11<p<0.89. This seems a very rational choice in a high-volatility situation where information changes extremely quickly. (As an example, IIRC the bid-ask spread in financial markets increases right before earnings are released).
(I agree it is reasonable to have a bid-ask spread when betting against capable adversaries. I think the statements-I-object-to are asserting something else, and the analogy to financial markets is mostly irrelevant. I don’t really want to get into this now.)