Thanks Vasco! Yes, as in my previous paper, though (a) most of the points I’m making get some traction against models in which the time of perils hypothesis is true, (b) they get much more traction if the Time of Perils is false.
For example, on the first mistake, the gap between cumulative and per-unit risk is lower if risk is concentrated in a few centuries (time of perils) whereas if it’s spread across many centuries. And on the second mistake, the the importance of background risk is reduced if that background risk is going to be around for only a few centuries at a meaningful level.
I think that the third mistake (ignoring population dynamics) should retain much of its importance on time of perils models. Actually, it might be more important insofar as those models tend to give higher probability to large-population scenarios coming about. I’d be interested to see how the numbers work out here, though.
Thanks Vasco! Yes, as in my previous paper, though (a) most of the points I’m making get some traction against models in which the time of perils hypothesis is true, (b) they get much more traction if the Time of Perils is false.
For example, on the first mistake, the gap between cumulative and per-unit risk is lower if risk is concentrated in a few centuries (time of perils) whereas if it’s spread across many centuries. And on the second mistake, the the importance of background risk is reduced if that background risk is going to be around for only a few centuries at a meaningful level.
I think that the third mistake (ignoring population dynamics) should retain much of its importance on time of perils models. Actually, it might be more important insofar as those models tend to give higher probability to large-population scenarios coming about. I’d be interested to see how the numbers work out here, though.