You come away with the conclusion that “I think the best futures at least would require a good deal of preventing constraining competition, at least re-locust like value systems, and this despite many risks that this entails.”
I don’t understand why you think competition with locusts probably burns much of the galactic resources in expectation. It’s obviously unclear how space combat/exploration dynamics go, but I think defense dominance (in most respects) is significantly more likely, perhaps like 80%. So, totally yolo-ing locusts maybe loses ~20% of the value in expectation on my views.
I do think that in the worlds where space combat isn’t sufficiently defense dominant you’ll need serious mitigations as you discuss. (And in cases where we’re not yet certain about defense dominance we’d also want these mitigations.)
You come away with the conclusion that “I think the best futures at least would require a good deal of preventing constraining competition, at least re-locust like value systems, and this despite many risks that this entails.”
I don’t understand why you think competition with locusts probably burns much of the galactic resources in expectation. It’s obviously unclear how space combat/exploration dynamics go, but I think defense dominance (in most respects) is significantly more likely, perhaps like 80%. So, totally yolo-ing locusts maybe loses ~20% of the value in expectation on my views.
I do think that in the worlds where space combat isn’t sufficiently defense dominant you’ll need serious mitigations as you discuss. (And in cases where we’re not yet certain about defense dominance we’d also want these mitigations.)
Could you expand on why you think space would be defense dominant?