I think you’re right about AGI being very unlikely within the next 10 years. I would note, though, that the OpenPhil piece you linked to predicted at least 10% chance within 20 years, not 10 years (and I expect many people predicting “short timelines” would consider 20 years to be “short”). If you grant 1-2% chance to AGI in 10 years, perhaps that translates to 5-10% within 20 years.
I think you’re right about AGI being very unlikely within the next 10 years. I would note, though, that the OpenPhil piece you linked to predicted at least 10% chance within 20 years, not 10 years (and I expect many people predicting “short timelines” would consider 20 years to be “short”). If you grant 1-2% chance to AGI in 10 years, perhaps that translates to 5-10% within 20 years.