The problem is that spending is dominated by a narrow focus on technical solutions, including carbon capture, improving currently existing energy technologies and infrastructure, and the clean energy transition.
Just to clarify: As far as I can tell, the money is mostly not spent on developing technologies and e.g. carbon capture development is a tiny fraction of spend. Rather it’s mostly going towards deploying technologies we already have (which is rather different). My guess is that climate change is more neglected than the $640 billion figure suggests if you focus on “what technologies would be most impactful to develop?”.
the widely marketed message that we can ‘technology’ our way out of the climate crisis is misleading, and highly improbable.
It seems like the options are “develop and deplwoy the technology” or “convince everyone on Earth to take a massive lifestyle hit”, and the latter just seems implausible to me (as well as undesirable)?
annual deaths related to fuel combustion alone (i.e., outside air pollution) are estimated to be 8.7 million
This is not the same thing as climate change, and would be happening even if e.g. we had perfect carbon capture. So seems wrong to lump these in together?
One approach I have not seen addressed in EA fund literature and offers the potential to be a game-changer, is degrowth. The principles of degrowth critique the global capitalist system which pursues growth at all costs, resulting in human exploitation and ecological destruction.
I can only speak for myself, but degrowth seems (1) politically untenable (as noted above), and (2) requires that people accept much lower living standards. That seems bad to me? I generally want people to have higher living standards, not lower.
My guess is that climate change is more neglected than the $640 billion figure suggests if you focus on “what technologies would be most impactful to develop?”.
You may be right. Funding for clean energy projects, R&D supporting the commercialization of new technologies (From the World Economic Forum: “About 60% of 400 technologies listed by the International Energy Agency as key to carbon neutrality globally aren’t yet commercially available”), and supporting investment in the infrastructure needed to support those new technologies (i.e. supply chains, storage, transportation, etc.) does appear to be a major focus of spending though.
It seems like the options are “develop and deplwoy the technology” or “convince everyone on Earth to take a massive lifestyle hit”, and the latter just seems implausible to me (as well as undesirable)?
This is what people most frequently react to when discussing degrowth. To clarify, degrowth does not imply “everyone on earth.” There is a distinction to be made between the affluent global north (the primary source of environmental impact) where consumption is excessive, and the global south where development is still needed to create an equitable living standard. And while there is certainly more research to be done on how to practically implement a degrowth methodology (thus the need for funding), there is existing research which indicates a “comfortable” life style could still be possible under this approach. There is no doubt the paradigm shift required is significant. But the same could have been said for woman’s suffrage, labor unions, and civil rights at different points in history.
This is not the same thing as climate change, and would be happening even if e.g. we had perfect carbon capture. So seems wrong to lump these in together?
I think you make a fair point. While air pollution is impacting climate change, it is distinct from climate change as it relates to mortality. If I carve out the 8.7 million linked to air pollution then climate change would fall to the no.2 overall risk with 292.5 million deaths (using the same assumptions), behind the engineered pathogen risk (5% probability with 95% of the population wiped out) at 532 million. Still, a BIG number.
I can only speak for myself, but degrowth seems (1) politically untenable (as noted above), and (2) requires that people accept much lower living standards. That seems bad to me? I generally want people to have higher living standards, not lower.
Much more to be explored here which I hope to write about later and more in-depth , but my top line thoughts are as mentioned above.
Just to clarify: As far as I can tell, the money is mostly not spent on developing technologies and e.g. carbon capture development is a tiny fraction of spend. Rather it’s mostly going towards deploying technologies we already have (which is rather different). My guess is that climate change is more neglected than the $640 billion figure suggests if you focus on “what technologies would be most impactful to develop?”.
It seems like the options are “develop and deplwoy the technology” or “convince everyone on Earth to take a massive lifestyle hit”, and the latter just seems implausible to me (as well as undesirable)?
This is not the same thing as climate change, and would be happening even if e.g. we had perfect carbon capture. So seems wrong to lump these in together?
I can only speak for myself, but degrowth seems (1) politically untenable (as noted above), and (2) requires that people accept much lower living standards. That seems bad to me? I generally want people to have higher living standards, not lower.
Thank you Adam for your response.
My guess is that climate change is more neglected than the $640 billion figure suggests if you focus on “what technologies would be most impactful to develop?”.
You may be right. Funding for clean energy projects, R&D supporting the commercialization of new technologies (From the World Economic Forum: “About 60% of 400 technologies listed by the International Energy Agency as key to carbon neutrality globally aren’t yet commercially available”), and supporting investment in the infrastructure needed to support those new technologies (i.e. supply chains, storage, transportation, etc.) does appear to be a major focus of spending though.
It seems like the options are “develop and deplwoy the technology” or “convince everyone on Earth to take a massive lifestyle hit”, and the latter just seems implausible to me (as well as undesirable)?
This is what people most frequently react to when discussing degrowth. To clarify, degrowth does not imply “everyone on earth.” There is a distinction to be made between the affluent global north (the primary source of environmental impact) where consumption is excessive, and the global south where development is still needed to create an equitable living standard. And while there is certainly more research to be done on how to practically implement a degrowth methodology (thus the need for funding), there is existing research which indicates a “comfortable” life style could still be possible under this approach. There is no doubt the paradigm shift required is significant. But the same could have been said for woman’s suffrage, labor unions, and civil rights at different points in history.
This is not the same thing as climate change, and would be happening even if e.g. we had perfect carbon capture. So seems wrong to lump these in together?
I think you make a fair point. While air pollution is impacting climate change, it is distinct from climate change as it relates to mortality. If I carve out the 8.7 million linked to air pollution then climate change would fall to the no.2 overall risk with 292.5 million deaths (using the same assumptions), behind the engineered pathogen risk (5% probability with 95% of the population wiped out) at 532 million. Still, a BIG number.
I can only speak for myself, but degrowth seems (1) politically untenable (as noted above), and (2) requires that people accept much lower living standards. That seems bad to me? I generally want people to have higher living standards, not lower.
Much more to be explored here which I hope to write about later and more in-depth , but my top line thoughts are as mentioned above.