(1) Everything we read here needs to be adjusted for hindsight bias. I have no idea what the baserate for messy breakups among early-stage start-ups are, but I assume it’s significant. So “had a messy start-up breakup” is not a super reliable signal of a future scammer.
(2) We have only heard one sight of the story. We don’t know the reasons given by the people that didn’t quit. We don’t know how SBF explained the story at the time to Will. I think it’s likely that those details will make some of the EA Leader’s behaviour sound a bit more understandable.
That being said, some of the details reported in the article certainly sound concerning and gives us significant reasons to believe in serious wrongdoing. All of this should be seriously be investigated and we need to think carefully about how we can avoid things like that in the future.
I agree with other commenters that a CEA response is long overdue. I understand that they are involved in a trial and have they reasons, but they should try to say as much as they can, since the downsides of remaining silent are significant.
Some points I think need mentioning:
(1) Everything we read here needs to be adjusted for hindsight bias. I have no idea what the baserate for messy breakups among early-stage start-ups are, but I assume it’s significant. So “had a messy start-up breakup” is not a super reliable signal of a future scammer.
(2) We have only heard one sight of the story. We don’t know the reasons given by the people that didn’t quit. We don’t know how SBF explained the story at the time to Will. I think it’s likely that those details will make some of the EA Leader’s behaviour sound a bit more understandable.
That being said, some of the details reported in the article certainly sound concerning and gives us significant reasons to believe in serious wrongdoing. All of this should be seriously be investigated and we need to think carefully about how we can avoid things like that in the future.
I agree with other commenters that a CEA response is long overdue. I understand that they are involved in a trial and have they reasons, but they should try to say as much as they can, since the downsides of remaining silent are significant.