I would strongly disagree that nuclear weapons are any sort of existential risk.
Ok, I suppose that’s a useful semantic clarification. I agree they don’t pose an X risk to humanity, but they do pose an X risk to modern civilization.
Sorry, but the nuclear threat has not meaningfully changed since the day I was born in 1952. It would only take about 50 nukes to destroy America’s largest cities, which would collapse the food distribution system, leading to mass starvation, social and political chaos.
If you have a gun pointed at my head, it doesn’t matter how big or small the gun is, how many guns you have, and all of that.
There’s no meaningful difference between the Russians having 50 nukes, 1500 nukes, 5000 nukes, or 5 million nukes. Once they have 50, X risk to America is in play. As example, North Korea will soon have enough nukes to demolish America. They just need to get the long range delivery systems working.
All these fancy calculations the experts love to make are really meaningless, they’re mostly just attempts to position themselves as experts.
>Sorry, but the nuclear threat has not meaningfully changed since the day I was born in 1952.
This simply isn’t true. Even if we take your claim that it would only take 50 nukes to destroy America’s largest cities at face value and that that in turn would be enough to destroy the US, in 1952, the Soviets had only 50 nukes total, and very limited capability to deliver them to targets in US. Most would instead be going to Europe, and a lot of them wouldn’t go off because the planes carrying them would be shot down. And this is pre-H-bomb, so you’re going to need more than 50 bombs to do the same destruction that you could do with 50 today. (And to be clear, I don’t accept that 50 bombs is nearly enough to pose an X-risk to America.)
>As example, North Korea will soon have enough nukes to demolish America. They just need to get the long range delivery systems working.
China has cut them off at six missiles, which are aimed at cities where US decision-makers and their families live.
Ok, I suppose that’s a useful semantic clarification. I agree they don’t pose an X risk to humanity, but they do pose an X risk to modern civilization.
Sorry, but the nuclear threat has not meaningfully changed since the day I was born in 1952. It would only take about 50 nukes to destroy America’s largest cities, which would collapse the food distribution system, leading to mass starvation, social and political chaos.
If you have a gun pointed at my head, it doesn’t matter how big or small the gun is, how many guns you have, and all of that.
There’s no meaningful difference between the Russians having 50 nukes, 1500 nukes, 5000 nukes, or 5 million nukes. Once they have 50, X risk to America is in play. As example, North Korea will soon have enough nukes to demolish America. They just need to get the long range delivery systems working.
All these fancy calculations the experts love to make are really meaningless, they’re mostly just attempts to position themselves as experts.
>Sorry, but the nuclear threat has not meaningfully changed since the day I was born in 1952.
This simply isn’t true. Even if we take your claim that it would only take 50 nukes to destroy America’s largest cities at face value and that that in turn would be enough to destroy the US, in 1952, the Soviets had only 50 nukes total, and very limited capability to deliver them to targets in US. Most would instead be going to Europe, and a lot of them wouldn’t go off because the planes carrying them would be shot down. And this is pre-H-bomb, so you’re going to need more than 50 bombs to do the same destruction that you could do with 50 today. (And to be clear, I don’t accept that 50 bombs is nearly enough to pose an X-risk to America.)
>As example, North Korea will soon have enough nukes to demolish America. They just need to get the long range delivery systems working.
China has cut them off at six missiles, which are aimed at cities where US decision-makers and their families live.