I was perhaps unclear in my original comment. I wrote up a long explanation the many, many errors those two have made in their nuclear winter models at https://www.navalgazing.net/Nuclear-Winter, which I assumed that Henry had read. A quick glance at the paper in question turns up that they’re using the very models of soot production I critique. My expertise in agriculture is quite limited, so I can’t say anything about how a given amount of soot will affect crop production. I can say that they’re relying on a model so terrible that I genuinely don’t think a good-faith effort would produce anything that bad. It’s pretty hard to explain how the models get worse at exactly the rate that arsenals shrink, so the nuclear war situation stays the same otherwise. The stuff in the 80s was probably exaggerated somewhat, but it’s clear nonsense with arsenals an order of magnitude smaller today.
I was perhaps unclear in my original comment. I wrote up a long explanation the many, many errors those two have made in their nuclear winter models at https://www.navalgazing.net/Nuclear-Winter, which I assumed that Henry had read. A quick glance at the paper in question turns up that they’re using the very models of soot production I critique. My expertise in agriculture is quite limited, so I can’t say anything about how a given amount of soot will affect crop production. I can say that they’re relying on a model so terrible that I genuinely don’t think a good-faith effort would produce anything that bad. It’s pretty hard to explain how the models get worse at exactly the rate that arsenals shrink, so the nuclear war situation stays the same otherwise. The stuff in the 80s was probably exaggerated somewhat, but it’s clear nonsense with arsenals an order of magnitude smaller today.