Wait. OpenPhil gave money to Toon and Robock? Wow. If I’d know that, I would have written a very sharp criticism of that particular decision.
>Indeed, most of the research ever published on nuclear winter has been published in the last few years, using the latest climate modelling.
The problem isn’t climate modeling. The problem is that one of the inputs to the model is wrong by, conservatively, a factor of 50.
>The most recent papers are getting published in Nature. I would disagree that theres a “reliance on papers that have a number of obvious flaws”.
Peer review is a useful process, but not perfect, hence the existence of the replication crisis. In this case, there’s a couple of papers that keep popping up in more recent literature as the source for soot estimates that are extremely bad. But a typical peer reviewer for nature would have no reason to critique those papers, and doesn’t have the expertise to realize how bonkers some of the assumptions in them are.
Wait. OpenPhil gave money to Toon and Robock? Wow. If I’d know that, I would have written a very sharp criticism of that particular decision.
>Indeed, most of the research ever published on nuclear winter has been published in the last few years, using the latest climate modelling.
The problem isn’t climate modeling. The problem is that one of the inputs to the model is wrong by, conservatively, a factor of 50.
>The most recent papers are getting published in Nature. I would disagree that theres a “reliance on papers that have a number of obvious flaws”.
Peer review is a useful process, but not perfect, hence the existence of the replication crisis. In this case, there’s a couple of papers that keep popping up in more recent literature as the source for soot estimates that are extremely bad. But a typical peer reviewer for nature would have no reason to critique those papers, and doesn’t have the expertise to realize how bonkers some of the assumptions in them are.