Executive summary: The author argues that longtermism rests on unjustified assumptions about the consequences of extinction events and our ability to control the far future, though near-term extinction risk reduction is still important.
Key points:
Longtermism assumes extinction events would be catastrophic even over vast timescales, but post-extinction evolution could lead to comparable or greater welfare.
Over millions or billions of years, it’s highly uncertain whether post-extinction trajectories would be worse than trajectories where extinction is averted.
Our ability to alter the far future diminishes over time, and there are no clear causal chains to influence events thousands of years from now.
Arguments based on tiny probabilities of affecting the far future are unconvincing and could apply more to near-term risk reduction.
Near-term extinction risk reduction is important and efforts may be insufficient, but claims about the far future rest on unjustified assumptions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: The author argues that longtermism rests on unjustified assumptions about the consequences of extinction events and our ability to control the far future, though near-term extinction risk reduction is still important.
Key points:
Longtermism assumes extinction events would be catastrophic even over vast timescales, but post-extinction evolution could lead to comparable or greater welfare.
Over millions or billions of years, it’s highly uncertain whether post-extinction trajectories would be worse than trajectories where extinction is averted.
Our ability to alter the far future diminishes over time, and there are no clear causal chains to influence events thousands of years from now.
Arguments based on tiny probabilities of affecting the far future are unconvincing and could apply more to near-term risk reduction.
Near-term extinction risk reduction is important and efforts may be insufficient, but claims about the far future rest on unjustified assumptions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.