There is a fair number of people who don’t work in their top pick cause area or even cause areas they are much less convinced of than their peers, but currently they don’t advertise this fact.
I think this is likely to be correct. However, I seriously wonder if the distribution is uniform; i.e. are there as much people working on international development while it’s not their top pick as on AI Safety? I would say not.
The next question is whether we should update towards the causes where everyone who works in it is convinced it’s top priority, or whether there are other explanations for this hypothesis. I’m not sure how to approach this problem.
I think this is likely to be correct. However, I seriously wonder if the distribution is uniform; i.e. are there as much people working on international development while it’s not their top pick as on AI Safety? I would say not.
The next question is whether we should update towards the causes where everyone who works in it is convinced it’s top priority, or whether there are other explanations for this hypothesis. I’m not sure how to approach this problem.