This line of argument suggests that slow takeoff is inherently harder to steer. Because pretty much any version of slow takeoff means that the world will change a ton before we get strongly superhuman AI.
I’m not sure I agree that the argument suggests that. I’m also not sure slow takeoff is harder to steer than other forms of takeoff — they all seem hard to steer. I think I messed up the phrasing because I wasn’t thinking about it the right way. Here’s another shot:
Widespread AI deployment is pretty wild. If timelines are short, we might get attempts at AI takeover before we have widespread AI deployment. I think attempts like this are less likely to work than attempts in a world with widespread AI deployment. This is thinking about takeoff in the sense of deployment impact on the world (e.g., economic growth), rather than in terms of cognitive abilities.
On a related note, slow takeoff worlds are harder to steer in the sense that the proportion of influence on AI from x-risk oriented people probably goes down because the rest of the world gets involved, also the neglectedness of AI safety research probably drops; this is why some folks have considered conditioning their work on e.g., high p(doom).
Thanks for your comments! I probably won’t reply to the others as I don’t think I have much to add, they seem reasonable, though I don’t fully agree.
I’m not sure I agree that the argument suggests that. I’m also not sure slow takeoff is harder to steer than other forms of takeoff — they all seem hard to steer. I think I messed up the phrasing because I wasn’t thinking about it the right way. Here’s another shot:
Widespread AI deployment is pretty wild. If timelines are short, we might get attempts at AI takeover before we have widespread AI deployment. I think attempts like this are less likely to work than attempts in a world with widespread AI deployment. This is thinking about takeoff in the sense of deployment impact on the world (e.g., economic growth), rather than in terms of cognitive abilities.
On a related note, slow takeoff worlds are harder to steer in the sense that the proportion of influence on AI from x-risk oriented people probably goes down because the rest of the world gets involved, also the neglectedness of AI safety research probably drops; this is why some folks have considered conditioning their work on e.g., high p(doom).
Thanks for your comments! I probably won’t reply to the others as I don’t think I have much to add, they seem reasonable, though I don’t fully agree.