Thanks, Maxime! This is indeed a relevant consideration I thought a tiny bit about, and Michael St. Jules also brought that up in a comment on my draft.
First of all, it is important to note that UCC affects the neglectedness—and potentially also the probability—of “late s-risks”, only (i.e., those that happen far away enough from now for the UCC selection to actually have the time to occur). So let’s consider only these late s-risks.
We might want to differentiate between three different cases: 1. Extreme UCC (where suffering is not just ignored but ends up being valued as in the scenario I depict in this footnote. In this case, all kinds of late s-risks seem not only more neglected but also more likely. 2. Strong UCC (where agents end up being roughly indifferent to suffering; this is the case your comment assumes I think). In this case, while all kinds of late s-risks seem more neglected, late s-risks from conflict seem indeed less likely. However, this doesn’t seem to apply to (at least) near-misses and incidental risks. 3. Weak UCC (where agents still care about suffering but much less than we do). In this case, same as above, except perhaps for the “late s-risks from conflict” part. I don’t know how weak UCC would change conflict dynamics.
The more we expect #2 more than #1 and #3, the more your point applies, I think (with the above caveat on near-misses and incidental risks). I might definitely have missed something, though. It’s a bit complicated.
Thanks, Maxime! This is indeed a relevant consideration I thought a tiny bit about, and Michael St. Jules also brought that up in a comment on my draft.
First of all, it is important to note that UCC affects the neglectedness—and potentially also the probability—of “late s-risks”, only (i.e., those that happen far away enough from now for the UCC selection to actually have the time to occur). So let’s consider only these late s-risks.
We might want to differentiate between three different cases:
1. Extreme UCC (where suffering is not just ignored but ends up being valued as in the scenario I depict in this footnote. In this case, all kinds of late s-risks seem not only more neglected but also more likely.
2. Strong UCC (where agents end up being roughly indifferent to suffering; this is the case your comment assumes I think). In this case, while all kinds of late s-risks seem more neglected, late s-risks from conflict seem indeed less likely. However, this doesn’t seem to apply to (at least) near-misses and incidental risks.
3. Weak UCC (where agents still care about suffering but much less than we do). In this case, same as above, except perhaps for the “late s-risks from conflict” part. I don’t know how weak UCC would change conflict dynamics.
The more we expect #2 more than #1 and #3, the more your point applies, I think (with the above caveat on near-misses and incidental risks). I might definitely have missed something, though. It’s a bit complicated.