3. If humans become grabby, their values are unlikely to differ significantly from the values of the civilization that would’ve controlled it instead.
I think this is phrased incorrectly. I think the correct phrasing is :
3. If humans become grabby, their values (in expectation) are ~ the mean values of a grabby civilization.
Not sure if it’s what you meant but let me explain the difference with an example. let’s say there are three societies:
[humans | zerg | Protoss]
for simplicity let’s say the winner takes all of the lightcone.
EV[lightcone| zerg win] = 1
EV[lightcone| humans win] = 2
EV[lightcone| protoss win] = 3
Then if humans become grabby their values are guaranteed to differ from whoever else would have won, yet for utilitarian purposes we don’t care because the expected value is the same, given we don’t know if the zerg or protoss will win.
I think you might have meant this? But it’s somewhat important to distinguish because my updated (3) is a weaker claim than the original one, yet still enough to hold the argument together.
I think this is phrased incorrectly. I think the correct phrasing is :
3. If humans become grabby, their values (in expectation) are ~ the mean values of a grabby civilization.
Not sure if it’s what you meant but let me explain the difference with an example. let’s say there are three societies:
[humans | zerg | Protoss]
for simplicity let’s say the winner takes all of the lightcone.
EV[lightcone| zerg win] = 1
EV[lightcone| humans win] = 2
EV[lightcone| protoss win] = 3
Then if humans become grabby their values are guaranteed to differ from whoever else would have won, yet for utilitarian purposes we don’t care because the expected value is the same, given we don’t know if the zerg or protoss will win.
I think you might have meant this? But it’s somewhat important to distinguish because my updated (3) is a weaker claim than the original one, yet still enough to hold the argument together.
Yes, agreed — thanks for pointing this out!