Along the years I have been seeing that some members of the EA and Rationality communities are engaged with stuff regarding forecasting—forecasting tournaments, prediction markets and several other terms I am probably not naming correctly. As someone who loves both statistics and our psychological biases and fallacies, I am a bit curious—where is a good place to start learning about this? No only the hows—but also the whys—is it mostly for fun? To challenge yourself? To benefit from a prediction that may turn out to be accurate? And in such a chaotic world, where forecasting (I assume) only gets harder (and less possible) what’s exactly the point?
[Question] Where is a good place to start learning about Forecasting?
Along the years I have been seeing that some members of the EA and Rationality communities are engaged with stuff regarding forecasting—forecasting tournaments, prediction markets and several other terms I am probably not naming correctly.
As someone who loves both statistics and our psychological biases and fallacies, I am a bit curious—where is a good place to start learning about this?
No only the hows—but also the whys—is it mostly for fun? To challenge yourself? To benefit from a prediction that may turn out to be accurate? And in such a chaotic world, where forecasting (I assume) only gets harder (and less possible) what’s exactly the point?