I think that 80k doing strategic marketing like this sounds really interesting. I personally wasn’t excited about entering (despite being excited about the prize) because I’m pretty suspicious of “chance of a trip”, I think text like this is much more common when the chance is actually very low than when it’s high which makes the endeavour less worthwhile. I think if you’d given an explicit best guess probability that would have been helpful for me.
Sadly I didn’t really know how to give a reliable forecast given the endogenous effect of providing the forecast. I’ll post a pessimistic (for 80k, optimistic for referrers) update to Twitter soon. Basically, I think your chances of winning the funding are ~50% if you get two successful referrals at this point. 5 successful referrals probably gets you >80%.
I suspect this will be easy for you in particular, Caleb. Take my money!
I think that 80k doing strategic marketing like this sounds really interesting. I personally wasn’t excited about entering (despite being excited about the prize) because I’m pretty suspicious of “chance of a trip”, I think text like this is much more common when the chance is actually very low than when it’s high which makes the endeavour less worthwhile. I think if you’d given an explicit best guess probability that would have been helpful for me.
Sadly I didn’t really know how to give a reliable forecast given the endogenous effect of providing the forecast. I’ll post a pessimistic (for 80k, optimistic for referrers) update to Twitter soon. Basically, I think your chances of winning the funding are ~50% if you get two successful referrals at this point. 5 successful referrals probably gets you >80%.
I suspect this will be easy for you in particular, Caleb. Take my money!
That all makes sense. I will very likely have a think about who to refer.