For this, would you prefer to condition on something like there being no transformative AI, or not? I feel like sometimes these questions end up dominated by considerations like this, and it is plausible you care about this answer only conditional on something like this not happening.
The question is intended to look at tail risk associated with stock markets shutting down. Transformative AI may or may not constitute such a risk; for example, the AI might shut down the stock market because it’s going to do something far better with people’s money, or it might shut down the market because everyone is turned into paperclips. So I think it should be unconditional.
For this, would you prefer to condition on something like there being no transformative AI, or not? I feel like sometimes these questions end up dominated by considerations like this, and it is plausible you care about this answer only conditional on something like this not happening.
The question is intended to look at tail risk associated with stock markets shutting down. Transformative AI may or may not constitute such a risk; for example, the AI might shut down the stock market because it’s going to do something far better with people’s money, or it might shut down the market because everyone is turned into paperclips. So I think it should be unconditional.
That’s in pending now, as are a few other questions you may be interested in, though not identical to the ones you list.
I’ll post a response here in a few weeks once most of the questions I intend to write are actually live with a summary.