Empirical research finds limited evidence for decomposition benefits.
Time series decomposition seems quite different from binary probability decomposition.
A small experiment could help determine if decomposition helps binary forecasts.
Recent literature should be reviewed for more evidence on the technique.
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Executive summary: The evidence that multiplicative decomposition improves binary probability forecasts is weak.
Key points:
Conceptual arguments question whether decomposition improves accuracy.
Empirical research finds limited evidence for decomposition benefits.
Time series decomposition seems quite different from binary probability decomposition.
A small experiment could help determine if decomposition helps binary forecasts.
Recent literature should be reviewed for more evidence on the technique.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.