A possible reframe: Under what circumstances is writing posts and/or comments on the EA Forum more (or less) likely to be an impactful use of one’s time?
For example, your answer above suggests that writing on the Forum is not impactful where the theory of change involves influencing the actions of “people who have power and influence.” I don’t have an opinion on that either way. However, both that assertion and “Forum writing influences the views of more junior people, some of whom will have power in influence in 3-10 years” could be true. If so, that would nudge us toward writing certain types of posts and away from writing others (e.g., those in which a decision has to be made soon or never).
A possible reframe: Under what circumstances is writing posts and/or comments on the EA Forum more (or less) likely to be an impactful use of one’s time?
For example, your answer above suggests that writing on the Forum is not impactful where the theory of change involves influencing the actions of “people who have power and influence.” I don’t have an opinion on that either way. However, both that assertion and “Forum writing influences the views of more junior people, some of whom will have power in influence in 3-10 years” could be true. If so, that would nudge us toward writing certain types of posts and away from writing others (e.g., those in which a decision has to be made soon or never).