Vaccines have been among the most effective interventions in health policy; that’s why Suvita’s program in India has been considered very promising. But after the pandemic, we have been seeing drops in childhood vaccination across the globe [1, 2][1]. Measles has arguably resurged in US. Even though polio in the wild has been eradicated in the American continent, some recent cases have raised flags[2] in the most populated countries. Recently, in the Brazilian State Pará, polio virus has been reportedly found in human feces, and a case of facial paralysis is under investigation—it is being treated as an adverse event associated with vaccine. In US, the first case of polio in a decade was confirmed in July, and the presence of virus in sewers have led NY governor to declare a state of emergency
A recent Lancet editorial claims that, if we follow this trend, polio global eradication (deemed highly probable a few years ago) might become unlikely. Also, given the influence of antivaxxers over the Right, it’s plausible that new vaccination campaigns will face opposition (or decreased participation) in the West.
Thus, the question above. Is it worth an ITN assessment?
[1] On the Other hand, because of social isolation, the transmission for some diseases has allegedly decreased (as xkcd remarked).
[2] Recently, in the Brazilian State Pará, polio virus has been reportedly found in human feces, and a case of facial paralysis is under investigation—it is being treated as an adverse event associated with vaccine. In US, the first case of polio in a decade was confirmed in July, and the presence of virus in sewers have led NY governor to declare a state of emergency
It’s worth looking into, since it wouldn’t be that many research hours and it’d have a small chance of high upside. My initial intuition would be that this is not neglected enough though—the Global Polio Eradication Initiative is jointly made up of WHO, US CDC, UNICEF, GAVI, Gates Foundation, and Rotary International. So they’re probably not limited by money, technical expertise, or political weight. Maybe if there was some neglected intervention or population within the polio field?
Maybe a more promising research direction would be what diseases could be targeted for eradication, for what amount of resources/tractability etc. There may be diseases that aren’t currently in the purview of major global health organisations, where EA funding/talent could accelerate eradication efforts.