I think the argument crucially depends on the assumption that simulations will be disproportionately short-lived
Yes, the argument depends on Brian’s parameter F not being super small. F is “fraction of all computational sent-years spent non-solipsishly simulating almost-space-colonizing ancestral planets (both the most intelligent and also less intelligent creatures on those planets)”. “A non-solipsish simulation is one in which most or all of the people and animals who seem to exist on Earth are actually being simulated to a non-trivial level of detail”. Brian guessed F = 10^-6, but it feels like it should be much smaller to me. If the value of the future is e.g. 10^30 times the value of this century, it is maybe reasonable to assume that the vast vast majority of computational sent-years are also simulations of the far future, as opposed to simulations of almost-space-colonizing ancestral planets.
Thanks for clarifying, Michael!
Yes, the argument depends on Brian’s parameter F not being super small. F is “fraction of all computational sent-years spent non-solipsishly simulating almost-space-colonizing ancestral planets (both the most intelligent and also less intelligent creatures on those planets)”. “A non-solipsish simulation is one in which most or all of the people and animals who seem to exist on Earth are actually being simulated to a non-trivial level of detail”. Brian guessed F = 10^-6, but it feels like it should be much smaller to me. If the value of the future is e.g. 10^30 times the value of this century, it is maybe reasonable to assume that the vast vast majority of computational sent-years are also simulations of the far future, as opposed to simulations of almost-space-colonizing ancestral planets.