You mention the following methods to estimate thresholds:
Using near-termist thresholds as a starting point
Using benchmarks for cost-effectiveness from current longtermist charities
Using the estimates [guesses] of others
I think the 2nd is the most promising. It is the one employed to establish thresholds for neartermist charities, which are usually benchmarked against GiveWell’s top charities. Open Philanthropy is arguably the largest funder of longtermist projects, so I think it would be valuable to:
Know what are their marginal longtermist grants (in theory, the marginal grants in each cause area should be equally cost-effective, but it would be better to pick scalable interventions whose marginal cost-effectiveness would not decrease much for additional resources).
Then try to estimate how cost-effectively they reduce e.g. extinction risk until 2050. Maybe this can already be done using the quantitative models of Open Philanthropy’s bio team.
In addition, I believe it is worth estimating the cost-effectiveness of longtermist charities in terms of a neartermist metric like DALYs averted per $ without accounting for future generations, and then see how they compare with GiveWell’s top charities.
Hi Spencer,
You mention the following methods to estimate thresholds:
I think the 2nd is the most promising. It is the one employed to establish thresholds for neartermist charities, which are usually benchmarked against GiveWell’s top charities. Open Philanthropy is arguably the largest funder of longtermist projects, so I think it would be valuable to:
Know what are their marginal longtermist grants (in theory, the marginal grants in each cause area should be equally cost-effective, but it would be better to pick scalable interventions whose marginal cost-effectiveness would not decrease much for additional resources).
Then try to estimate how cost-effectively they reduce e.g. extinction risk until 2050. Maybe this can already be done using the quantitative models of Open Philanthropy’s bio team.
In addition, I believe it is worth estimating the cost-effectiveness of longtermist charities in terms of a neartermist metric like DALYs averted per $ without accounting for future generations, and then see how they compare with GiveWell’s top charities.