In the first of these, I think most of the EV comes from whether technologically-capable intelligence evolves or not. I’m more likely or not on that (for say extinction via bio-catastrophe), but not above 90%.
Have you thought about whether there any interventions that could transmit human values to this technologically capable intelligence? The complete works of Bentham and an LLM on a ruggedised solar powered laptop that helps them translate English into their language...
Not very leveraged given the fraction within a fraction within a fraction of success, but maybe worth one marginal person.
In the first of these, I think most of the EV comes from whether technologically-capable intelligence evolves or not. I’m more likely or not on that (for say extinction via bio-catastrophe), but not above 90%.
Have you thought about whether there any interventions that could transmit human values to this technologically capable intelligence? The complete works of Bentham and an LLM on a ruggedised solar powered laptop that helps them translate English into their language...
Not very leveraged given the fraction within a fraction within a fraction of success, but maybe worth one marginal person.