Yes, we probably aren’t benefitting future individuals in a strict and narrow person-affecting sense much or at all.
However, there are some other person-affecting views that are concerned with differences for future moral patients:
On wide person-affecting views, if Alice would have a better life than Bob, then it’s better for Alice to come to exist than for Bob to come to exist, all else equal (the Nonidentity problem). This doesn’t imply it’s better to ensure Alice or Bob exists than neither does, though. (See Thomas, 2019 or Meacham, 2012 for examples).
On asymmetric person-affecting views, it can still be good to prevent bad lives. (This needn’t imply antinatalism, because it could be that good lives can offset bad lives (Thomas, 2019, Pummer, 2024).)
I don’t remember 100%, but I think that Thomas and Pummer might both not be arguing for or articulating an axiological theory that ranks outcomes as better or worse, but rather a non-consequentialist theory of moral obligations/oughts. For my own part, I think views like that are a lot more plausible, but the view that it doesn’t make the outcome better to create additional happy lives seems to me very hard to defend.
I think Thomas did not take a stance on whether it was axiological or deontic in the GPI working paper, and instead just described the structure of a possible view. Pummer described his as specifically deontic and not axiological.
I’m not sure what should be classified as axiological or how important the distinction is. I’m certainly giving up the independence of irrelevant alternatives, but I think I can still rank outcomes in a way that depends on the option set.
I tend to be sceptical of appeals to value as option-set dependent as a means of defending person-affecting views, for the reason that we needn’t imagine outcomes as things that someone is able to choose to bring about, as opposed to just something that happens to be the case. If you imagine the possible outcomes this way, then you can’t appeal to option-set dependence to block the various arguments, since the outcomes are not options for anyone to realize. And if, say, it makes the outcome better if an additional happy person happens to exist without anyone making it so, then it is hard to see why it should be otherwise when someone brings about that the additional happy person exists. (Compare footnote 9 in this paper/report.)
I think this bit from the footnote helped clarify, since I wasn’t sure what you meant in your comment:
Note, however, that there is no assumption that d—f are outcomes for anyone to choose, as opposed to outcomes that might arise naturally. Thus, it is not clear how the appeal to choice set dependent betterness can be used to block the argument that f is not worse than d, since there are no choice sets in play here.
I might be inclined to compare outcome distributions using the same person-affecting rules as I would for option sets, whether or not they’re being chosen by anyone. I think this can make sense on actualist person-affecting views, illustrated with my “Best in the outcome argument”s here, which is framed in terms of betterness (between two outcome distributions) and not choice. (The “Deliberation path argument” is framed in terms of choice.)
Then, I’d disagree with this:
And if, say, it makes the outcome better if an additional happy person happens to exist without anyone making it so
Yes, we probably aren’t benefitting future individuals in a strict and narrow person-affecting sense much or at all.
However, there are some other person-affecting views that are concerned with differences for future moral patients:
On wide person-affecting views, if Alice would have a better life than Bob, then it’s better for Alice to come to exist than for Bob to come to exist, all else equal (the Nonidentity problem). This doesn’t imply it’s better to ensure Alice or Bob exists than neither does, though. (See Thomas, 2019 or Meacham, 2012 for examples).
On asymmetric person-affecting views, it can still be good to prevent bad lives. (This needn’t imply antinatalism, because it could be that good lives can offset bad lives (Thomas, 2019, Pummer, 2024).)
I don’t remember 100%, but I think that Thomas and Pummer might both not be arguing for or articulating an axiological theory that ranks outcomes as better or worse, but rather a non-consequentialist theory of moral obligations/oughts. For my own part, I think views like that are a lot more plausible, but the view that it doesn’t make the outcome better to create additional happy lives seems to me very hard to defend.
I think Thomas did not take a stance on whether it was axiological or deontic in the GPI working paper, and instead just described the structure of a possible view. Pummer described his as specifically deontic and not axiological.
I’m not sure what should be classified as axiological or how important the distinction is. I’m certainly giving up the independence of irrelevant alternatives, but I think I can still rank outcomes in a way that depends on the option set.
I tend to be sceptical of appeals to value as option-set dependent as a means of defending person-affecting views, for the reason that we needn’t imagine outcomes as things that someone is able to choose to bring about, as opposed to just something that happens to be the case. If you imagine the possible outcomes this way, then you can’t appeal to option-set dependence to block the various arguments, since the outcomes are not options for anyone to realize. And if, say, it makes the outcome better if an additional happy person happens to exist without anyone making it so, then it is hard to see why it should be otherwise when someone brings about that the additional happy person exists. (Compare footnote 9 in this paper/report.)
Hmm, interesting.
I think this bit from the footnote helped clarify, since I wasn’t sure what you meant in your comment:
I might be inclined to compare outcome distributions using the same person-affecting rules as I would for option sets, whether or not they’re being chosen by anyone. I think this can make sense on actualist person-affecting views, illustrated with my “Best in the outcome argument”s here, which is framed in terms of betterness (between two outcome distributions) and not choice. (The “Deliberation path argument” is framed in terms of choice.)
Then, I’d disagree with this:
Nice argument, I hadn’t heard that before!
I’m pretty sure that Broome gives an argument of this kind in Weighing Lives!