Yeah, I think that lock-in this century is quite a bit more likely than extinction this century. (Especially if we’re talking about hitting a points of no return for total extinction.)
That’s via two pathways: - AGI-enforced institutions (including AGI-enabled immortality of rulers). - Defence-dominance of star systems
I do think that “path dependence” (a broader idea than lock-in) is a big deal, but most of the long-term impact of that goes via a billiards dynamic: path-dependence on X, today, affects some lock-in event around X down the road. (Where e.g. digital rights and space governance are plausible here.)
I think my gut reaction is to judge extinction this century as at least as likely as lock-in, though a lot might depend on what’s meant by lock-in. But I also haven’t thought about this much!
Yeah, I think that lock-in this century is quite a bit more likely than extinction this century. (Especially if we’re talking about hitting a points of no return for total extinction.)
That’s via two pathways:
- AGI-enforced institutions (including AGI-enabled immortality of rulers).
- Defence-dominance of star systems
I do think that “path dependence” (a broader idea than lock-in) is a big deal, but most of the long-term impact of that goes via a billiards dynamic: path-dependence on X, today, affects some lock-in event around X down the road. (Where e.g. digital rights and space governance are plausible here.)
I think my gut reaction is to judge extinction this century as at least as likely as lock-in, though a lot might depend on what’s meant by lock-in. But I also haven’t thought about this much!