Civ-Saturation seems plausible, though only if there are other agents in the affectable universe. I don’t have a good view on this, and yours is probably better.
Civ-Similarity seems implausible. I at least have some control over what humans do in the future, so I can steer things towards the futures I judge best. I don’t have any control over what aliens do. And there are large differences between the best and middling futures as I argue in Power Laws of Value .
> Civ-Similarity seems implausible. I at least have some control over what humans do in the future Maybe there is a misunderstanding here. The Civ-Similarity is not about having control; it is not about marginal utility. It is that the expected utility (not the marginal) produced by space-faring civilizations given either human ancestry or alien ancestry, are similar. The single strongest argument in favour of this hypothesis is that we are too uncertain about how conditioning on human ancestry or alien ancestry changes the utility produced in the far future by a space-faring civilization. We are too uncertain to say that U(far future | human ancestry) significantly differs from U(far future | alien ancestry).
No, I don’t think there’s a misunderstanding. It’s more that I think the future could go many different ways with wide variance in expected value, and I can shape the direction the human future goes but I cannot shape the direction that alien futures go.
What do you think about just building and letting misaligned AGI loose? That seems fairly similar to letting other civilisations take over. (Apologies that I haven’t read your evaluation.)
Civ-Saturation seems plausible, though only if there are other agents in the affectable universe. I don’t have a good view on this, and yours is probably better.
Civ-Similarity seems implausible. I at least have some control over what humans do in the future, so I can steer things towards the futures I judge best. I don’t have any control over what aliens do. And there are large differences between the best and middling futures as I argue in Power Laws of Value .
You can find a first evaluation of the Civ-Saturation hypothesis in Other Civilizations Would Recover 84+% of Our Cosmic Resources—A Challenge to Extinction Risk Prioritization. It seems pretty accurate as long as you assume EDT.
> Civ-Similarity seems implausible. I at least have some control over what humans do in the future
Maybe there is a misunderstanding here. The Civ-Similarity is not about having control; it is not about marginal utility. It is that the expected utility (not the marginal) produced by space-faring civilizations given either human ancestry or alien ancestry, are similar. The single strongest argument in favour of this hypothesis is that we are too uncertain about how conditioning on human ancestry or alien ancestry changes the utility produced in the far future by a space-faring civilization. We are too uncertain to say that U(far future | human ancestry) significantly differs from U(far future | alien ancestry).
No, I don’t think there’s a misunderstanding. It’s more that I think the future could go many different ways with wide variance in expected value, and I can shape the direction the human future goes but I cannot shape the direction that alien futures go.
What do you think about just building and letting misaligned AGI loose? That seems fairly similar to letting other civilisations take over. (Apologies that I haven’t read your evaluation.)