Will is thinking about this much more actively and will give the best answer, but here are some key crucial considerations:
How tractable is extinction risk reduction and trajectory change work?
As a part of that, are there ways that we can have a predictable and persistent effect on the value of the long-term future other than by reducing extinction risk?
How good is the future by default?
How good are the best attainable futures?
These are basically Tractability and Importance from the INT framework.
Some of the biggest disagreements in the field are over how likely we are to achieve eutopia by default (or what % of eutopia we will achieve) and what, if anything, can be done to predictably shape the far future. Populating and refining a list of answers to this last question has been a lot of the key work of the field over the past few years.
Will is thinking about this much more actively and will give the best answer, but here are some key crucial considerations:
How tractable is extinction risk reduction and trajectory change work?
As a part of that, are there ways that we can have a predictable and persistent effect on the value of the long-term future other than by reducing extinction risk?
How good is the future by default?
How good are the best attainable futures?
These are basically Tractability and Importance from the INT framework.
Some of the biggest disagreements in the field are over how likely we are to achieve eutopia by default (or what % of eutopia we will achieve) and what, if anything, can be done to predictably shape the far future. Populating and refining a list of answers to this last question has been a lot of the key work of the field over the past few years.