Will is thinking about this much more actively and will give the best answer, but here are some key crucial considerations:
How tractable is extinction risk reduction and trajectory change work?
As a part of that, are there ways that we can have a predictable and persistent effect on the value of the long-term future other than by reducing extinction risk?
How good is the future by default?
How good are the best attainable futures?
These are basically Tractability and Importance from the INT framework.
Some of the biggest disagreements in the field are over how likely we are to achieve eutopia by default (or what % of eutopia we will achieve) and what, if anything, can be done to predictably shape the far future. Populating and refining a list of answers to this last question has been a lot of the key work of the field over the past few years.
Thanks Tyler! I think this is spot on. I am nearing the end of writing a very long report on this type of work so I don’t have time at the moment to write a more detailed reply (and what I’m writing is attempting to answer these questions). One thing that really caught my eye was when you mentioned:
Populating and refining a list of answers to this last question has been a lot of the key work of the field over the past few years.
I am deeply interested in this field, but not actually sure what is meant by “the field.” Could you point me to what search terms to use and perhaps the primary authors or research organizations who have published work on this type of thing?”
Will is thinking about this much more actively and will give the best answer, but here are some key crucial considerations:
How tractable is extinction risk reduction and trajectory change work?
As a part of that, are there ways that we can have a predictable and persistent effect on the value of the long-term future other than by reducing extinction risk?
How good is the future by default?
How good are the best attainable futures?
These are basically Tractability and Importance from the INT framework.
Some of the biggest disagreements in the field are over how likely we are to achieve eutopia by default (or what % of eutopia we will achieve) and what, if anything, can be done to predictably shape the far future. Populating and refining a list of answers to this last question has been a lot of the key work of the field over the past few years.
Thanks Tyler! I think this is spot on. I am nearing the end of writing a very long report on this type of work so I don’t have time at the moment to write a more detailed reply (and what I’m writing is attempting to answer these questions). One thing that really caught my eye was when you mentioned:
I am deeply interested in this field, but not actually sure what is meant by “the field.” Could you point me to what search terms to use and perhaps the primary authors or research organizations who have published work on this type of thing?”