I think your BOTEC is unlikely to give meaningful answers because it treats averting a human death as equivalent to moving someone from the bottom of their welfare range to the top of their welfare range. At least to me, this seems plainly wrong—I’d vastly prefer shifting someone from receiving the worst possible torture to the greatest possible happiness for an hour to extending someone’s ordinary life for an hour.
The objections you raise are still worth discussing, but I think the best starting place for discussing them is Duffy (2023)’s model (Causal model, report), rather than your BOTEC.
I think your BOTEC is unlikely to give meaningful answers because it treats averting a human death as equivalent to moving someone from the bottom of their welfare range to the top of their welfare range. At least to me, this seems plainly wrong—I’d vastly prefer shifting someone from receiving the worst possible torture to the greatest possible happiness for an hour to extending someone’s ordinary life for an hour.
The objections you raise are still worth discussing, but I think the best starting place for discussing them is Duffy (2023)’s model (Causal model, report), rather than your BOTEC.