Even if you think Lightcone misfired here—If you add FTX in your dataset too, then the “see something? say something!” norm starts looking better overall.
No, I don’t think it does. You also need to assume that a “see something? say something!” rumor mill would have actually had any benefit for the FTX situation. I’m pretty sure that’s false, and I think it’s pretty plausible it would be harmful.
(1) The fraud wouldn’t have become publicly known under this norm, so I don’t think this actually helps.
(2) I don’t think it would be correct for EA to react strongly in response to the rumors about SBF- there are similar rumors or conflicts around a very substantial number of famous people, e.g. Zuckerberg vs. the Winklevoss Twins.
(3) Most importantly, how we get from “see something? say something?” to “the billionaire sending money to everybody, who has a professional PR firm, somehow ends up losing out” is just a gigantic question mark here. To me, the outcome here is that SBF now has a mandate to drive anybody he can dig up or manufacture dirt on out of EA. (I seem to recall that the sources of the rumors about him went to another failed crypto hedge fund that got sued; I can’t find a source, but even if that didn’t actually happen it would be easy him to make that happen to Lantern Ventures.) (I expect that the proposed “EA investigative journalist” would have probably been directly paid by SBF in this scenario.)
(1) The fraud wouldn’t have become publicly known under this norm, so I don’t think this actually helps.
If EA disavowed SBF, he wouldn’t have been able to use EA to launder his reputation.
(2) I don’t think it would be correct for EA to react strongly in response to the rumors about SBF- there are similar rumors or conflicts around a very substantial number of famous people, e.g. Zuckerberg vs. the Winklevoss Twins.
In this case it would’ve been correct, because the rumors were pointing at something real. We know that with the benefit of hindsight. One has to weigh false positives against false negatives.
I’m not saying rumors alone are enough for a disavowal, I’m saying rumors can be enough to trigger investigation.
(3) Most importantly, how we get from “see something? say something?” to “the billionaire sending money to everybody, who has a professional PR firm, somehow ends up losing out” is just a gigantic question mark here. To me, the outcome here is that SBF now has a mandate to drive anybody he can dig up or manufacture dirt on out of EA. (I seem to recall that the sources of the rumors about him went to another failed crypto hedge fund that got sued; I can’t find a source, but even if that didn’t actually happen it would be easy him to make that happen to Lantern Ventures.) (Similarly, I expect that such an “EA investigative journalist” would have probably been directly paid by SBF, had one existed.)
I think a war between SBF and EA would have been good for FTX users—the sooner things come to a head, the fewer depositors lose all their assets. It also would’ve been good for EA in the long run, since it would be more clear to the public that fraud isn’t what we’re about.
Your point about conflict of interest for investigative journalists is a good one. Maybe we should fund them anonymously so they don’t know which side their bread is buttered on. Maybe the ideal person is a freelancer who’s confident they can find other gigs if their relationship with EA breaks down.
I think a war between SBF and EA would have been good for FTX users
To be clear, what I’m saying is that SBF would just flat out win, and really easily too, I wouldn’t expect a war. The people who had criticized him would be driven out of EA on various grounds; I wouldn’t expect EA as a whole to end up fighting SBF; I would expect SBF would probably end up with more control over EA than he had in real life, because he’d be able to purge his critics on various grounds.
Your point about conflict of interest for investigative journalists is a good one. Maybe we should fund them anonymously so they don’t know which side their bread is buttered on.
I don’t think that’s enough; you’d need to not only fund some investigators anonymously, you’d also need to (a) have good control over selecting the investigators, and (b) ban anybody from paying or influencing investigators non-anonymously, which seems unenforceable. (Also, in real life, I think the investigators would eventually have just assumed that they were being paid by SBF or by Dustin Moskovitz.)
To be clear, what I’m saying is that SBF would just flat out win, and really easily too, I wouldn’t expect a war. The people who had criticized him would be driven out of EA on various grounds; I wouldn’t expect EA as a whole to end up fighting SBF; I would expect SBF would probably end up with more control over EA than he had in real life, because he’d be able to purge his critics on various grounds.
What would it take for EA to become the kind of movement where SBF would’ve lost?
I don’t think that’s enough; you’d need to not only fund some investigators anonymously, you’d also need to (a) have good control over selecting the investigators, and (b) ban anybody from paying or influencing investigators non-anonymously, which seems unenforceable. (Also, in real life, I think the investigators would eventually have just assumed that they were being paid by SBF or by Dustin Moskovitz.)
I agree that the ideal proposal would have answers here. However, this is also starting to sound like a proof that there’s no such thing as a clean judicial system, quality investigative journalism, honest scientific research into commercial products like drugs, etc. Remember, it’s looking like SBF is going to rot in jail despite all of the money he gave to politicians. The US judicial system is far from perfect, but let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
If EA just isn’t capable of trustworthy institutions for some reason, maybe there’s some clever way to outsource to an entity with a good track record? Denmark, Finland, and Norway seem to do quite well in international rankings based on a quick Google: 1, 2. Perhaps OpenAI should’ve incorporated in Denmark?
What would it take for EA to become the kind of movement where SBF would’ve lost?
I sorta feel like this is barking up the wrong tree, because: (a) the information that SBF was committing fraud was private and I cannot think of a realistic scenario where it would have become public, and (b) even if widely spread, the public information wouldn’t have been sufficient.
Before FTX’s fall, I’d remarked to several people that EA’s association with crypto (compare e.g. Ben Delo) was almost certainly bad for us, as it’s overrun with scams and fraud. At the time, I’d been thinking non-FTX scams affecting FTX or its customers, not FTX itself being fraudulent; but I do feel like the right way to prevent all this would have been to refuse any association between EA and crypto.
However, this is also starting to sound like a proof that there’s no such thing as a clean judicial system, quality investigative journalism, honest scientific research into commercial products like drugs, etc.
Good point! I’m probably being overly skeptical here, on reflection.
I think @chinscratch may have meant: What would it take for EA to become the kind of movement where SBF would’ve lost in his hypothetical efforts to squelch discussion of his general shadiness, and run those folks out of EA?
EA couldn’t have detected or stopped the fraud in my opinion, but more awareness of shady behavior could have caused people to distance themselves from SBF, not make major decisions in reliance on FTX cash, etc.
No, I don’t think it does. You also need to assume that a “see something? say something!” rumor mill would have actually had any benefit for the FTX situation. I’m pretty sure that’s false, and I think it’s pretty plausible it would be harmful.
(1) The fraud wouldn’t have become publicly known under this norm, so I don’t think this actually helps.
(2) I don’t think it would be correct for EA to react strongly in response to the rumors about SBF- there are similar rumors or conflicts around a very substantial number of famous people, e.g. Zuckerberg vs. the Winklevoss Twins.
(3) Most importantly, how we get from “see something? say something?” to “the billionaire sending money to everybody, who has a professional PR firm, somehow ends up losing out” is just a gigantic question mark here. To me, the outcome here is that SBF now has a mandate to drive anybody he can dig up or manufacture dirt on out of EA. (I seem to recall that the sources of the rumors about him went to another failed crypto hedge fund that got sued; I can’t find a source, but even if that didn’t actually happen it would be easy him to make that happen to Lantern Ventures.) (I expect that the proposed “EA investigative journalist” would have probably been directly paid by SBF in this scenario.)
If EA disavowed SBF, he wouldn’t have been able to use EA to launder his reputation.
In this case it would’ve been correct, because the rumors were pointing at something real. We know that with the benefit of hindsight. One has to weigh false positives against false negatives.
I’m not saying rumors alone are enough for a disavowal, I’m saying rumors can be enough to trigger investigation.
I think a war between SBF and EA would have been good for FTX users—the sooner things come to a head, the fewer depositors lose all their assets. It also would’ve been good for EA in the long run, since it would be more clear to the public that fraud isn’t what we’re about.
Your point about conflict of interest for investigative journalists is a good one. Maybe we should fund them anonymously so they don’t know which side their bread is buttered on. Maybe the ideal person is a freelancer who’s confident they can find other gigs if their relationship with EA breaks down.
To be clear, what I’m saying is that SBF would just flat out win, and really easily too, I wouldn’t expect a war. The people who had criticized him would be driven out of EA on various grounds; I wouldn’t expect EA as a whole to end up fighting SBF; I would expect SBF would probably end up with more control over EA than he had in real life, because he’d be able to purge his critics on various grounds.
I don’t think that’s enough; you’d need to not only fund some investigators anonymously, you’d also need to (a) have good control over selecting the investigators, and (b) ban anybody from paying or influencing investigators non-anonymously, which seems unenforceable. (Also, in real life, I think the investigators would eventually have just assumed that they were being paid by SBF or by Dustin Moskovitz.)
What would it take for EA to become the kind of movement where SBF would’ve lost?
I agree that the ideal proposal would have answers here. However, this is also starting to sound like a proof that there’s no such thing as a clean judicial system, quality investigative journalism, honest scientific research into commercial products like drugs, etc. Remember, it’s looking like SBF is going to rot in jail despite all of the money he gave to politicians. The US judicial system is far from perfect, but let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
If EA just isn’t capable of trustworthy institutions for some reason, maybe there’s some clever way to outsource to an entity with a good track record? Denmark, Finland, and Norway seem to do quite well in international rankings based on a quick Google: 1, 2. Perhaps OpenAI should’ve incorporated in Denmark?
I sorta feel like this is barking up the wrong tree, because: (a) the information that SBF was committing fraud was private and I cannot think of a realistic scenario where it would have become public, and (b) even if widely spread, the public information wouldn’t have been sufficient.
Before FTX’s fall, I’d remarked to several people that EA’s association with crypto (compare e.g. Ben Delo) was almost certainly bad for us, as it’s overrun with scams and fraud. At the time, I’d been thinking non-FTX scams affecting FTX or its customers, not FTX itself being fraudulent; but I do feel like the right way to prevent all this would have been to refuse any association between EA and crypto.
Good point! I’m probably being overly skeptical here, on reflection.
I think @chinscratch may have meant: What would it take for EA to become the kind of movement where SBF would’ve lost in his hypothetical efforts to squelch discussion of his general shadiness, and run those folks out of EA?
EA couldn’t have detected or stopped the fraud in my opinion, but more awareness of shady behavior could have caused people to distance themselves from SBF, not make major decisions in reliance on FTX cash, etc.