Small sidenote that my guess is most people are modeling but still seemed good to make explicit: That market only resolves if Nonlinear does indeed file a suit. My current guess is it’s very unlikely for them to sue, and the world in which they sue are of course the worlds where it’s most likely they would win.
This means this market does not measure the probability of a libel suit against the original post succeeding, but only of it succeeding conditional on Nonlinear deciding to go ahead with such a suit, which I think increased the probability a lot.
Small sidenote that my guess is most people are modeling but still seemed good to make explicit: That market only resolves if Nonlinear does indeed file a suit. My current guess is it’s very unlikely for them to sue, and the world in which they sue are of course the worlds where it’s most likely they would win.
This means this market does not measure the probability of a libel suit against the original post succeeding, but only of it succeeding conditional on Nonlinear deciding to go ahead with such a suit, which I think increased the probability a lot.
Good point to make explicit!