Thanks for the response, seems like a safe bet, yeah. :)
Re forecasting, “making low-probability events happen” is a very interesting framing, thanks! I still am maybe somewhat more positive about forecasting:
many questions involve the actions of highly capable agents and therefore requiring at least some thinking in the direction of this framing
the practice of deriving concrete forecasting questions from my models seems very valuable for my own thinking, and some feedback from a generalist crowd about how likely some event will happen, and seeing in the comments what variables they believe are relevant + having some people posting new info that relate to the question seems fairly valuable, too, because you can easily miss important things
Thanks for the response, seems like a safe bet, yeah. :)
Re forecasting, “making low-probability events happen” is a very interesting framing, thanks! I still am maybe somewhat more positive about forecasting:
many questions involve the actions of highly capable agents and therefore requiring at least some thinking in the direction of this framing
the practice of deriving concrete forecasting questions from my models seems very valuable for my own thinking, and some feedback from a generalist crowd about how likely some event will happen, and seeing in the comments what variables they believe are relevant + having some people posting new info that relate to the question seems fairly valuable, too, because you can easily miss important things