I’m surprised to see that it hasn’t been mentioned, but a lot is still up in the air with this one. Both countries have a long history of not fully following through on proposed restrictions, but of course that could end at any time and surprise anyone who things historical precedent precludes historically unprecedented events (in this case, major fully-enforced restrictions).
In this case, Samsung (Korea) and TSMC (Taiwan) have already reportedly circumvented the latest restrictions, although I don’t know to what extent they’ll be used as a loophole for Chinese firms to get most of the chips anyway, or if the 1-year period is just a buffer and they won’t find some complicated way to extend it.
People in this area are, by now, pretty accustomed to saying “it could still go either way”.
I’m surprised to see that it hasn’t been mentioned, but a lot is still up in the air with this one. Both countries have a long history of not fully following through on proposed restrictions, but of course that could end at any time and surprise anyone who things historical precedent precludes historically unprecedented events (in this case, major fully-enforced restrictions).
In this case, Samsung (Korea) and TSMC (Taiwan) have already reportedly circumvented the latest restrictions, although I don’t know to what extent they’ll be used as a loophole for Chinese firms to get most of the chips anyway, or if the 1-year period is just a buffer and they won’t find some complicated way to extend it.
People in this area are, by now, pretty accustomed to saying “it could still go either way”.