We estimate that GWWC’s marginal 2025 giving multiplier is around 13x – for every additional $1 they spend on promoting pledging, around $13 will be raised for GiveWell top charities [1]. Uncertainty is high and caution in interpreting results is advised.
Open Philanthropy’s (OP’s) bar is around 2 times the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities. You got a multiplier of 13 which is significantly higher than 2, and therefore suggests OP is underfunding GWWC. Does OP think the multiplier is much closer to 2, or are they limiting themselves to providing at most a given fraction of GWWC’s funding? @JamesSnowden may have feedback here.
We’re limiting ourselves to a fraction of GWWC’s funding. At the moment, that’s in the region of 70%, but GWWC and OP are aligned that we expect to dial it down substantially over time, both to enable a more diverse funding base for GWWC and to free up programmatic budget for other organizations.
Fwiw I disagree that OP’s bar is 2x the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities in practice. In my view (not an official OP position or anything) differences in modeled cost-effectiveness between GW and OP’s bar are indistinguishable from noise.
Thanks for the analysis, Joel!
Open Philanthropy’s (OP’s) bar is around 2 times the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities. You got a multiplier of 13 which is significantly higher than 2, and therefore suggests OP is underfunding GWWC. Does OP think the multiplier is much closer to 2, or are they limiting themselves to providing at most a given fraction of GWWC’s funding? @JamesSnowden may have feedback here.
We’re limiting ourselves to a fraction of GWWC’s funding. At the moment, that’s in the region of 70%, but GWWC and OP are aligned that we expect to dial it down substantially over time, both to enable a more diverse funding base for GWWC and to free up programmatic budget for other organizations.
Fwiw I disagree that OP’s bar is 2x the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities in practice. In my view (not an official OP position or anything) differences in modeled cost-effectiveness between GW and OP’s bar are indistinguishable from noise.
Thanks, James! Strongly upvoted for the transparency and willingness to share views which differ from OP’s official position.