Executive summary: Russia’s potential withdrawal from the START III treaty by 2026 could escalate tensions and increase the risk of military confrontation between nuclear powers, necessitating diplomatic interventions and alternative approaches to enhance international security.
Key points:
Russia’s refusal to allow inspections and meet treaty obligations stems from broader geopolitical tensions with the US.
Conflicts between the US and Russia typically follow a six-phase pattern, from expansion of influence to diplomatic interventions.
Five alternatives are proposed to address the situation, including demonstrating military threat reduction and promoting arms control through international organizations.
Potential failure modes and outcomes for each alternative are analyzed, considering their impact on trust, transparency, and international cooperation.
The project highlights the need for timely action to prevent Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty and calls for further research on outstanding questions.
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Executive summary: Russia’s potential withdrawal from the START III treaty by 2026 could escalate tensions and increase the risk of military confrontation between nuclear powers, necessitating diplomatic interventions and alternative approaches to enhance international security.
Key points:
Russia’s refusal to allow inspections and meet treaty obligations stems from broader geopolitical tensions with the US.
Conflicts between the US and Russia typically follow a six-phase pattern, from expansion of influence to diplomatic interventions.
Five alternatives are proposed to address the situation, including demonstrating military threat reduction and promoting arms control through international organizations.
Potential failure modes and outcomes for each alternative are analyzed, considering their impact on trust, transparency, and international cooperation.
The project highlights the need for timely action to prevent Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty and calls for further research on outstanding questions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.