Hmm, fair. I guess the kind of people who are unpersuaded by speculative AI stuff might also be unswayed by the scope of the cosmic endowment.
So I amend my takeaway from the OpenPhil number to: people who buy that the long-term future matters a lot (mostly normative) should also buy that longtermism can absorb at least $10B highly effectively (mostly empirical).
Hmm, fair. I guess the kind of people who are unpersuaded by speculative AI stuff might also be unswayed by the scope of the cosmic endowment.
So I amend my takeaway from the OpenPhil number to: people who buy that the long-term future matters a lot (mostly normative) should also buy that longtermism can absorb at least $10B highly effectively (mostly empirical).