Effective altruists are very keen on Superforecasters. The project behind the book was funded by Jason Matheny (who’s mentioned in the book), who attended EAG:SF. We also mentioned the Good Judgement Project on the 80k blog almost two years ago.
https://80000hours.org/2014/01/which-cause-is-most-effective-300/
I agree with your key point though that this could be a tough tradeoff.
Effective altruists are very keen on Superforecasters. The project behind the book was funded by Jason Matheny (who’s mentioned in the book), who attended EAG:SF. We also mentioned the Good Judgement Project on the 80k blog almost two years ago. https://80000hours.org/2014/01/which-cause-is-most-effective-300/
I agree with your key point though that this could be a tough tradeoff.