Using “median timeline” or “median outcome” seems like a mistake to me.
Just like “there’s a 10% chance this new covid pandemic will be super lethal” does not mean “let’s ignore it” (and also doesn’t mean “we will die tomorrow so nothing we do matters”). It means something like “there is more than one outcome to seriously prepare for”
See Scott Alexander’s post which inspired how I now think about such questions
Using “median timeline” or “median outcome” seems like a mistake to me.
Just like “there’s a 10% chance this new covid pandemic will be super lethal” does not mean “let’s ignore it” (and also doesn’t mean “we will die tomorrow so nothing we do matters”). It means something like “there is more than one outcome to seriously prepare for”
See Scott Alexander’s post which inspired how I now think about such questions