Allowing anonymous predictions causes a whole bunch of other problems. But even we could somehow get rid of coordination mechanisms like: dominance assurance contracts, the fear of losing your social network, or psychological loyalty towards your ingroup, is it really in your own interest to lose the source of income for you and your children for a <51% chance of a one time payout, or will the outcomes of conditional prediction markets be biased towards the interests of rich people?
Allowing anonymous predictions causes a whole bunch of other problems. But even we could somehow get rid of coordination mechanisms like: dominance assurance contracts, the fear of losing your social network, or psychological loyalty towards your ingroup, is it really in your own interest to lose the source of income for you and your children for a <51% chance of a one time payout, or will the outcomes of conditional prediction markets be biased towards the interests of rich people?